NBA Draft

Knicks vs. Heat prediction, odds, start time: 2023 NBA playoff picks, Game 1 best bets by model on 71-38 roll

The Miami Heat continue to embrace their role as an underdog when they face the New York Knicks in the opening game of their Eastern Conference semifinal series in New York on Sunday. The Heat (44-38), who had to beat the Chicago Bulls in the play-in tournament just to qualify for the postseason, went on to defeat the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in five games in the first round. The Knicks (47-35), who finished as the fifth seed in the East, were dominant in dispatching the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games in their Round 1 matchup. This will be the sixth time the Heat and Knicks will meet in the postseason. New York has won three of the previous five series, although Miami is 15-14 against the Knicks in playoff games.

Tipoff from Madison Square Garden in New York is set for 1 p.m. ET. New York is a 5-point favorite in the latest Heat vs. Knicks odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 209. Before locking in any Knicks vs. Heat picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the third week of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Knicks and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Knicks vs. Heat:

  • Knicks vs. Heat spread: Knicks -5
  • Knicks vs. Heat over/under: 209 points
  • Knicks vs. Heat money line: Heat +175, Knicks -210
  • MIA: The Heat are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall
  • NY: The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on three or more days rest
  • Knicks vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat

Why the Knicks can cover

Power forward Julius Randle, who is questionable with an ankle injury, has been hobbled during the postseason after being an offensive force during the regular season. He scored 13 points, dished out six assists and grabbed four rebounds in the Game 5 win at Cleveland on Wednesday. He produced a double-double in the series opener, scoring 19 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. For the postseason, he is averaging 14.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and three assists. 

Shooting guard Josh Hart is one of four New York players averaging double-digit scoring in the postseason. He scored 19 points and grabbed seven rebounds in the 102-93 Game 4 victory over Cleveland. Although he followed that up with just four points in Game 5, he was dominant on the boards, garnering 12 rebounds. He had a double-double in Game 1 with 17 points and 10 rebounds. In five regular-season games against Miami, Hart averaged 11.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.2 steals, splitting his time between Portland and the Knicks. See which side to back at SportsLine.

Why the Heat can cover

Small forward Jimmy Butler has played at an elite level this postseason and nearly singlehandedly took down the top-seeded Bucks. Butler is averaging 37.6 points, six rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals in five postseason games. Butler poured in 56 points and grabbed nine rebounds in Game 4, and followed that up with a 42-point, eight-rebound and four-assist effort in Game 5. He registered a double-double in the Game 1 win with 35 points and 11 assists, to go along with five rebounds and three steals.

Point guard Gabe Vincent has also been red hot, scoring in double figures in four of his five postseason games. In the Game 5 128-126 overtime win over Milwaukee to clinch the series, Vincent scored 22 points and dished out six assists. He scored 16 points in Game 2. He is averaging 13 points, five assists and one rebound in the playoffs. He has also played well against New York during the regular season. In four games against the Knicks, he averaged 12 points, 3.3 assists, 2.3 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 27 minutes. See which side to back at SportsLine.

How to make Heat vs. Knicks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 210 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. See who to back at SportsLine.

So who wins Knicks vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 71-38 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.  

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