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Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction: Snap up the Under


There is a low number for the total in the Mavericks-Thunder game Wednesday because Dallas is without Kristaps Porzingis. But the Thunder offense goes south against competent defenses.

The Thunder rank dead last in the NBA in scoring versus top 10 defenses. I project them to score only 96 points against the Mavericks, who have the No. 5-rated defense. Meanwhile, Dallas has the third-longest average time of possession on offense per DunksAndThrees.com, while Oklahoma City has the second-longest defensive time of possession. This game should feature very little pace.

Luka Doncic handles the ball against the Thunder.
NBAE via Getty Images

The Thunder make opponents work for it on offense. They are physical and make good rotations, with very little drop-off to the bench unit. The Thunder’s big defensive weakness is rim protection with their lack of bigs, but Dallas ranks 30th in rim rate offensively. So you have a team that takes a lot of jump-shots in Dallas facing a team that contests jumpers well in the Thunder.

This looks like a slugfest and since I have this projected at 197 total, that provides enough room to take the Under here.

The play: Mavericks-Thunder, Under 207

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