Last week the Portland Trail Blazers finally executed the long-awaited Damian Lillard trade, yielding more than most of us initially imagined. Aside from a cache of first round pics and Malcolm Brogdon, General Manager Joe Cronin secured the services of two centers who have started for their former teams in recent NBA Finals series. Doing so, he gave Portland a clear upgrade over Jusuf Nurkic who despite having his moments, lacked consistency and durability.
Last week, I wrote about the addition of Deandre Ayton from the Phoenix Suns. On Sunday, Cronin landed Robert Williams III, aka Time Lord, from the Boston Celtics. The pair are pretty serious artillery at one position on a team not expected to even sniff the NBA Playoffs. They’re still young and pre-prime, both aged 25.
Whether Williams stays in Portland remains to be seen, but as things stand, he looks to be Ayton’s back up. Coach Chauncey Billups said as much during training camp in Santa Barbara this week but suggested there may be stretches where they share the court.
I’m going to find some ways to have both of those two big guys on the floor at times, I think it’s a great advantage for us, with their athleticism and defensive prowess. I don’t see Williams starting at the four.
One reason for this direction might be the fact that Williams hasn’t been the picture of health. Williams, taken three spots after Blazers guard Anfernee Simons in the 2018 NBA Draft, has played only 209 games through five seasons, due predominantly to a series of lower body injuries. The 6’9 big told the training camp media scrum this week he was feeling great, but we’re yet to be convinced he can play a full 82-game season.
Williams’ Gifts
When he does take the floor he is a force of nature, running between the rims, throwing his imposing frame around with free abandon. Don’t be fooled by his height. His 7’6 wingspan combined with ridiculous strength and quickness help him match it with the likes of Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic, highlighted by his All Defensive Second Team debut last season.
In every season bar 2022-23, Williams has been top 10 in blocks among bigs. He was also first in steals in 2019-20. But he’s not just a defensive dynamo. In 2019-20 and 2021-22, Williams ranked first among bigs in points per shot attempt at 146.9 and 149.3 respectively.
Williams is not a shooter, but he has the shot mechanics to work his game out to 15 feet. He’s reliable in high pick and rolls and dribble hand offs thanks to decent vision and passing.
The former Texas A&M standout hasn’t dropped below top five in effective field goal percentage since entering the league and was top three converting at the rim last season.
Under the boards, Williams ranked 17th on the offensive end and 47th on defense last season, while finishing 12th in converting field goals resulting in And-1 attempts.
His 2022 NBA Playoff performance was a particular standout. While his 7.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 2.2 blocks in 23.2 minutes in 17 games doesn’t look that impressive, the Louisianian was a key member of a Celtics squad that battled with the Golden State Warriors through six NBA Finals games.
Despite his injury struggles, Williams currently holds career averages of 7.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.7 blocks. In the right setting and with consistent fitness, the only way is up.
The Ayton-Williams dynamic
As mentioned above, Billups appears intrigued by the thought of the pair on the court together. It won’t be his first option. Last season, Ayton played 97 percent of his minutes at center while Williams played 53 percent at center when he was available. Interestingly the Celtics’ best plus-minus lineup (+45.1) last season saw Williams at the five, Al Horford at the four and Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White at the smaller positions.
In Portland, Ayton will almost certainly start at center. At his best, Ayton is both an offensive and defensive force. His shooting stroke is pure in the midrange and he has the ability to extend his range beyond the three point line.
If Ayton can do this, then there might be more opportunity for Billups to keep both bigs together, with Ayton at the four and Williams at the five on offense. On defense, it probably doesn’t matter who plays which, given both are capable defenders inside and outside the paint.
My only concern would be them playing alongside Scoot Henderson. The rookie guard isn’t a bad shooter, but he’s yet to show reliability from long range and, as such, poses spacing issues. I do, however, like the defensive versatility and the offensive rim pressure the pair offer with teammates that are able to spread the floor, think Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe and Jerami Grant.
The more likely scenario will see Williams playing exclusive understudy to Ayton, giving the Blazers elite center play 48 minutes a game. That’s constant offensive rim pressure, passing and above-average defense delivered by two bigs who have already performed on the big stage.
Other impressive center rotations
Kristaps Porzingis, 28 and Al Horford, 37 (Boston Celtics)
Williams’ former franchise is still endowed with big man talent, probably the only reason the Celtics felt comfortable letting him go. Porzingis is coming off a career year with the Washington Wizards and appears to have gotten his body right, playing all his minutes at center. Horford is no spring chicken but he’s still spry after spending 92 percent of his time at center last season.
Jarrett Allen, 25 and Evan Mobley, 22 (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Mobley played the lion share of his minutes at power forward last season (56 percent) but if the Cavaliers decide to move on from Allen (100 percent at the pivot last season), Mobley can push up, allowing the Ohio franchise to push the pace. Entering his third season, many are expecting Mobley to figure as elite big in a now competitive Eastern Conference, potentially making Allen expendable.
Clint Capela, 29 and Onyeka Okongwu, 22 (Atlanta Hawks)
Okongwu, who played 99 percent of his court time at the five, appears to have been Capela’s heir apparent for a couple of seasons. Whether the Hawks are genuinely shopping the Swiss big who saw 100 percent of his minutes at center last year remains to be seen, but for the time being, Atlanta has one of the better one-two punches at the pivot position.
Jaren Jackson Jr., 24 and Steven Adams, 30 (Memphis Grizzlies)
Jackson Jr. was last year’s Defensive Player of the Year, spending 77 percent of his time at the pivot. This was mostly out of necessity with Adams missing almost half the season. A fit Adams may push Jackson Jr. back to power forward but let’s see whether the big Kiwi returns to the starting unit, comes off the bench or is moved given the impressive rise of Xavier Tillman last season.
Rudy Gobert, 31 and Karl-Anthony Towns, 27 (Minnesota Timberwolves)
One of the more polarizing combinations. The longevity of the Gobert-Towns combo may not be viable. In theory though, they do make sense with Towns an offensive specialist and Gobert the defender. Towns spent 65 per cent of his time at the four last season to make way for the Frenchman, a departure from his former role as full-time center. This season could be make or break in Minneapolis with Towns likely moved if the pair don’t yield positive results.
Conclusion
Any doubts about the potency of Portland’s big duo center around to Williams’ health. If he can stay on the court and rediscover his 2022 playoff form, this team has two young centers eager to prove themselves and yet to hit their respective primes.
Portland isn’t going to win many games this season, even with the two-headed monster at the pivot position. But patience might be the play here with both centers signed for another three years. If the Scoot Henderson-Shaedon Sharpe backcourt takes serious strides over the next two years, the Blazers might actually be a scary proposition come the 2025-26 NBA season with continuity at the center position a plus.